Iran not likely to retaliate after alleged Israeli strike: ‘Not ready’

Iran not likely to retaliate after alleged Israeli strike: ‘Not ready’ post thumbnail image

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Iran is just not prone to reply straight in opposition to the Jewish state however quite use its proxies to do the job, after a high commander of its Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) was killed in an obvious Israeli airstrike on the Iranian embassy in Damascus.

“Given the goal and site of the strike – at a constructing adjoining to the consulate — I anticipate the Iranians to reply,” Invoice Roggio, managing editor of Lengthy Warfare Journal, instructed Fox Information Digital.

“It’s tough to say how the Iranians reply,” Roggio mentioned. “The Iranians might attempt to goal Israelis abroad, and may additionally leverage its militias – Hezbollah, the Houthis, and the Iraqi and Syria militias, to strike at targets inside Israel.”

Roggio’s feedback come after Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior IRGC commander, was reportedly killed Monday in an air strike on the Iranian consulate within the Syrian capital, in accordance with a report from Reuters.


Photo of Mohammad Reza Zahedi.

Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander Mohammad Reza Zahedi was reportedly killed in an Israeli airstrike in Damascus, Syria. (Fars Media Company)

Iran’s consulate was flattened within the strike, in accordance with the report, which famous that Syrian and Iranian media had blamed the carnage on an Israeli air strike.

Israel declined to touch upon the obvious strike, Reuters reported, with an Israeli navy spokesperson telling the outlet that it does “not touch upon studies in overseas media.” The strike, in accordance with Iranian state tv, additionally killed a number of Iranian diplomats.


Israel has stepped up strikes in Syria and on Iranian-backed targets because the Hamas’ assault on Israel in October, Reuters famous, hitting each Lebanon’s Iranian-backed Hezbollah terror teams in addition to IRGC targets.

Airstrike in Damascus, Syria

Iranian state media is reporting that a number of diplomats have been killed within the strike as properly, in accordance with Reuters. (Reuters/Firas Makdesi/TPX Photographs of the Day)

Yigal Carmon, a former adviser to 2 Israeli prime ministers on countering terrorism and founder and president of the Center East Media Analysis Institute (MEMRI), instructed Fox Information Digital that, “Khamenei’s insurance policies through the years replicate cowardice. The Iranian sample of response is such that he escalates when he feels that the opposite facet is afraid of him, and backs down when the opposite facet reveals deterrence.”

He continued, “Within the assault on an official Iranian authorities goal in Damascus, Israel escalated in opposition to Iran, telling Iran that Israel is not going to proceed with the proxy sport so generally performed by Iran. The Israeli escalation was to function a warning: we’re prepared for battle with you, Iran, straight, right now, despite the fact that we’re at struggle in each Gaza and Lebanon.”

Carmon’s mentioned his evaluation is that, “Khamenei is not going to react to the Israeli escalation by escalating in opposition to an Israeli goal BY IRAN ITSELF. Somewhat, he’ll proceed with the proxy sport, concentrating on Israel by the Houthis, Hezbollah and probably by terrorists within the West. He doesn’t want and isn’t prepared for an all-out struggle with Israel right now.”

Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi

Chief of the Normal Workers, Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi holding a situational evaluation and dialogue with reserve commanders on the Lebanese border. (IDF Spokesman’s Unit)

One other professional on the area, Casey Babb, a Fellow with the Institute for Nationwide Safety Research in Tel Aviv, and a Professor on the Norman Paterson Faculty of Worldwide Affairs in Ottawa, instructed Fox Information Digital that the most recent strike is an instance of the Israeli navy’s vital attain.

“It indicators to Israel’s enemies — together with Hamas, Hezbollah, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Iran, and different hostile actors — that the attain of Israel is immeasurable. Nobody is protected,” Babb mentioned. 

Babb mentioned that the strike will deal Iran a “severe organizational blow” and disrupt the IRGC’s potential to “mobilize, plan, and perform efficient assaults” whereas additionally destabilizing “the psyche of Iranian management and their proxies.”

“It makes them really feel weak, it makes them really feel inferior, and crucially, it makes them query themselves,” Babb mentioned. “On the finish of the day – all of those barbarians know their loss of life warrants have been issued. This newest killing is only a reminder of that.”

Syria airstrike aftermath

A broken automotive is lifted following the strike in Damascus, Syria, on Monday, April 1. (Reuters/Firas Makdesi)

Responding to the assault throughout a information convention, State Division spokesperson Matt Miller mentioned the U.S. didn’t have affirmation of the goal or the accountable get together, however famous the division’s concern that the reported strike might be seen as “escalatory” and potential “trigger a rise in battle within the area.”

In the meantime, Fox Information’ Trey Yingst reported Monday that Iran has vowed a “swift, direct, and harsh” response to the obvious Israeli assault.

Nonetheless, Babb argued that Iran is unlikely to mount any type of “vital” response.

“Hezbollah, Iran, and different potential entities that might reply don’t need a full scale struggle with Israel,” Babb mentioned. “They know they’d be in ruins comparatively quick – in order that they’ll doubtless reply in some calibrated means – however not sufficient to set off a full on navy confrontation.”


Hezbollah fighters attend the funeral of their commander Wissam al-Tawil

Hezbollah fighters attend the funeral of their commander Wissam al-Tawil, within the village of Khirbet Selm, south Lebanon, Tuesday, Jan. 9, 2024. A confrontation that has unfolded in Lebanon present longstanding schisms within the small nation over Hezbollah, now amplified by the militant group’s function within the Lebanon-Israel border clashes and by fears that an already crisis-hit Lebanon might be dragged into an all-out struggle. (AP Picture/Hussein Malla, File)

Joe Truzman a senior analysis analyst on the Basis for Protection of Democracies (FDD) and an professional on Iran and its proxies, instructed Fox Information Digital that whereas Iran has usually steered away from a direct battle with Israel and used its proxies to hold out assaults, “The assault in Damascus particularly focused high-ranking IRGC officers, in addition to the Iranian consulate. Because of this, Iran is prone to reply extra forcefully to this incident in comparison with previous assaults on its officers in Syria, he mentioned. 

“This potential shift in techniques means that the battle between Iran and Israel could also be coming into a brand new and probably extra harmful part,” he warned.

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